The world’s most important oil chokepoint is still effectively closed, and Tehran says it isn’t budging. Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz “will not be opened until our seven conditions, based on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, are met.”
The statement, carried by Iran’s Nournews agency, landed days after Tehran received Washington’s reply to its diplomatic proposal. “The Americans, who say something different in the media, have recently put forward proposals through a mediator,” Qalibaf said. “But they must understand that the period of dragging out the process and dictating one-sided demands is over.”
What Iran wants
The conditions trace back to a June interim agreement — the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding — that briefly paused the fighting. According to Iranian officials, Tehran’s demands include an end to American military action, the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, an end to economic warfare, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. A key American demand in return has been that Iran dismantle its nuclear weapons program.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi, speaking separately to foreign diplomats in Tehran on Sunday, offered the other side of the coin: Iran’s plan could see the strait reopen “within seven days” if Washington accepts the proposal. He said Tehran had clearly explained its conditions and hoped Washington would choose diplomacy — but warned Iran was prepared to respond if the US chose military action again.
The ships keep getting hit
While diplomats talk, the waterway stays dangerous. At least seven incidents involving vessels have been reported in recent weeks, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III — Kuwait-flagged — was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait, sparking a fire. All crew were evacuated safely, and five Indian nationals aboard were rescued with the help of Omani authorities, India’s embassy in Muscat said.
On October 4, another tanker was hit in the strait, damaging its engine room. UKMTO gave no date for that incident and did not identify the vessel; other reports identified it as the Liberian-flagged tanker Lipsi. Nobody has claimed responsibility for any of the attacks.
The oil is finding another way
Here is the strange part: despite the attacks, Middle East crude exports have largely recovered. According to shipping data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, non-Iranian crude exports from the region rose back above pre-war levels in late September, exceeding the roughly 18-million-barrels-per-day pre-war average on four days — reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels a day.
Producers have learned to go around the danger. In September, about 40 percent of Gulf crude left the region without crossing Hormuz, compared with just 17 percent before the war. More than 70 percent of crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August, up from almost none before the conflict. Saudi Arabia has increased exports through the Red Sea, and the UAE has used its pipeline to Fujairah.
Iran itself remains the exception: its own exports are still well below pre-war averages.
Why this matters
About a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG moved through Hormuz before the war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. The fact that crude exports have recovered through workarounds is remarkable — and it has kept global oil markets relatively calm. But it depends on a fragile workaround economy of ship-to-ship transfers and alternate routes, while crews still face the daily threat of attack. A single bad week could send the system, and prices, spinning.
