On Monday afternoon, eight days before Israelis vote, Benny Gantz did the thing his own campaign team had begged him not to do. He quit.
The former army chief of staff and defense minister announced he would not contest the October 27 Knesset election, the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that triggered the Gaza war.
“I will not run in the upcoming elections. I will continue fighting for unity. It is the only solution that will prevent another disaster and protect Israel against all challenges, at home and abroad.”
“Unfortunately, at this time, I have not been able to convince enough of the people, and the responsibility is mine,” he said at an evening press conference, warning leaders not to “take us back to October 6.” Without a broad unity government, he said, Israel faced “repeat elections or, God forbid, disaster.”
One week, three shocks
Gantz’s exit was the third jolt to the race in 72 hours. On Saturday, Donald Trump gave Benjamin Netanyahu his “complete and total” endorsement — nine days before the vote, warning that if Israel chose “the wrong leader,” America might leave it to fight alone. On Monday, Axios reported that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth flew to Israel in secret to meet Netanyahu at Ovda Air Base; the Pentagon declined to confirm.
Each shock lands differently. Trump’s endorsement shores up Netanyahu’s base. Hegseth’s visit signals that Washington treats this election as a strategic event — it came amid reported U.S.-Israeli talk of resuming strikes on Iran. Gantz’s withdrawal is the opposition’s self-correction: one candidate removing himself so his votes don’t die with him.
What the polls actually say
Monday evening’s surveys tell the same story with different numbers. Channel 13 put Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc at 51 seats to Netanyahu’s 50; Channel 12 had it 55 to 51, though that poll was taken before Gantz’s announcement. Eisenkot’s Yashar led Likud 24–21 and 20–18; on suitability for prime minister he led 43–38 and 45–35.
Treat these as a trend, not a tally: margins of error run about four points. The consistent picture is that Eisenkot leads personally while the blocs are tied — and neither approaches the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Arab parties’ 13 to 14 seats hold the balance, and whether either side can work with them is the open question. His camp is not collapsing, either: Netanyahu’s bloc gained in some October polls, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit sits at eight or nine seats, and Ofer Winter’s new party has crossed the threshold with four to five on his side.
The threshold math that made Gantz’s exit matter
Israel’s parliament is elected by nationwide proportional representation, and parties below 3.25 percent of the vote win nothing. Blue and White was polling around 1 percent — 0.9 in Kan’s October 11 survey. Every ballot under that line is discarded.
Gantz’s reversal was total. A week earlier he had vowed to stay in “until the end” — “No matter what happens, I’m in because the country needs saving.” But lawmaker Alon Schuster drew the red line: “If it’s certain that the party won’t cross the electoral threshold, we must not run. We won’t throw votes in the trash.” Gantz acted one day before soldiers begin casting ballots.
The money was already committed: roughly 15 million shekels of public campaign financing, spent on advisers, pollsters, and polling-station staff who will still report on election day. The hollowing-out had been underway for months, with Blue and White lawmakers defecting to Eisenkot’s Yashar — Eisenkot once served as Gantz’s deputy in the IDF. Ynet’s verdict: Gantz’s exit “effectively brings an end to the so-called third bloc.” And because the lists are already printed, Blue and White will still appear on the ballot; votes for it will simply not count.
What happens next
Eisenkot called it “the correct and responsible decision to withdraw from the most consequential elections since the establishment of the State of Israel.” Democrats leader Yair Golan spoke of a “shared responsibility to ensure the victory of the change bloc.” On the right, politicians demanded small parties on their own side also drop out rather than risk the threshold.
Every scenario is awkward. Eisenkot could finish first and still fail to govern, because parts of his bloc refuse cooperation with the Arab parties whose seats he needs. Netanyahu could trail as a candidate and still keep his office through coalition arithmetic — he has survived sub-61 Knessets before, and kingmakers like Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu will name their price. Gantz’s own prescription, a “broad Zionist government,” looks dead on arrival: Eisenkot has explicitly rejected sitting with Netanyahu.
Why this matters beyond Israel
This is the first Israeli election since October 7 — the political endgame of the Gaza war. Voters will judge how the war was fought and whether to restart the confrontation with Iran that Washington and Jerusalem began together in February. The next government’s makeup could decide whether ceasefire diplomacy holds or escalation resumes.
Washington is no longer an observer here: a U.S. president endorsed a candidate nine days out and tied it to military support; the Pentagon chief flew in secretly a week before the vote. And over everything hangs Netanyahu’s legal jeopardy — his corruption trial (bribery, fraud, and breach-of-trust charges he denies) is in its defense stage, his pardon request to President Herzog, submitted last November, remains undecided, and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant is outstanding. His opponents say staying in office is inseparable from his legal survival; he calls the case a political witch hunt. The courtroom and the ballot box are deciding his fate in parallel.
Eight days is a long time in an Israeli campaign. Gantz bet his exit would clear the field for the anti-Netanyahu camp. The polls that will tell whether he was right have not been taken yet.
