Washington has told several Middle East allies to get ready for the possibility of renewed American military action against Iran after next week’s midterm elections — and for the retaliation that could follow.
According to two diplomats briefed on the warnings, US officials have cautioned regional governments that a new round of strikes could last several days, and that Tehran’s response could hit energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the sensitive messages.
President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on whether to order new strikes, the diplomats stressed. But he has repeatedly said he is weighing military action once the November 3 elections are over, and the warnings have put the region on alert that major operations could resume.
The message is part warning, part request: allies have been urged to take precautionary measures now, rather than scramble after the first missiles fly. Regional officials, the diplomats said, are bracing not only for an American campaign but for a longer fight if Iran and groups allied with it join the response.
It is not the first signal of escalation this week. The Wall Street Journal reported that the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, briefed Trump on military options for Iran at a White House meeting, as the administration weighs a resumption of major combat operations. Separately, Vice President JD Vance opened a back channel to Iran’s security chief — a letter Trump later described as being about medical aid.
Tehran, for its part, says diplomacy is still alive. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X on October 28 that Iran “continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed” and is working with mediators on ideas from a proposal floated last month — a proposal Trump had summarily rejected, but which the Iranians still want as the basis for returning to a ceasefire.
The United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministry, meanwhile, urged all sides to “exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions” to contain tensions and prevent a return to full-scale operations in a war that began in late February.
Why this matters
The timing is the story. By tying any decision to the midterms, Washington is signalling that the next phase of the Iran war may be a political choice as much as a military one — and Gulf states that host American bases and oil infrastructure would be on the front line of whatever follows. The US has not struck Iran since early September, but the warnings, the briefings and the back channel together suggest the pause is being treated as temporary, not as peace.
What happens next depends on two clocks: the election on November 3, and how quickly the US military could be ready after it. Neither is settled — and, as one analyst noted this week, Tehran may not wait for the American vote if it believes an attack is imminent and sees an advantage in striking first.
