The storm building over the Bay of Bengal now has a name. On Monday morning, India’s weather office said the deep depression east of the Andaman Islands had intensified into a cyclonic storm: Cyclone Arnab, pronounced “Ornab”, a name proposed by Bangladesh and the first cyclone to form over the Bay of Bengal in 2026.
The timeline, as forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD):
- Monday 26 October: Arnab forms as a cyclonic storm, centred about 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, moving westwards at about 15 kmph.
- Tuesday 27 October: it strengthens into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal. Heavy to very heavy rain begins along the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts.
- Wednesday 28 October, forenoon: landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe cyclonic storm, with sustained winds of 115–125 kmph and gusts up to 140 kmph.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has ordered round-the-clock vigilance and full preparedness, while next door in Odisha, Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi has deputed eight ministers to vulnerable districts. Odisha’s government has readied 60 Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force teams, 17 National Disaster Response Force teams and 225 fire service units, and has closed schools, colleges and childcare centres in five southern districts — Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri — for 28 and 29 October.
The IMD has issued a red warning for heavy to very heavy rain in those five districts from 27 October, with isolated extremely heavy falls above 20 cm on the 28th, and warned of a storm surge of about 1.5 metres near Kakinada and Yanam at landfall. Fishermen have been told not to put to sea since 24 October, and the storm’s forecast track passes roughly 300 km from Gopalpur in Odisha — close enough that Odisha, though not in the direct landfall path, is preparing as if it were.
There is a reason for that caution, and it is written into the region’s history. The Bay of Bengal’s shallow, funnel-shaped northern coast turns storm surges into the deadliest part of a cyclone, and October is the season when these storms form most often. Odisha’s stated goal, repeated by Majhi at every briefing, is zero casualties — a record the state has chased, with mixed success, through a generation of cyclones.
For now, the forecast is unusually consistent: every major bulletin agrees on the track, the timing and the intensity. What can still change is the strength at landfall — a storm that weakens over cooler water or strengthens over warm water in the next 48 hours — and the rainfall totals in the districts south of the track. The next IMD bulletin, due Tuesday morning, will show which way that is going. The official source for the latest track is the India Meteorological Department. Related coverage: Odisha braces for the October 28 landfall and why the Bay of Bengal breeds the world’s deadliest cyclones.
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