In five weeks, one of the quietest weapons in the US-China trade war could snap back into place. On November 27, 2026, China’s suspension of its export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States expires — and nobody has confirmed what happens next.
These are not household names, but they are industrial lifeblood: gallium and germanium feed the semiconductor and chip industries, and germanium is the standard base material for the solar cells that power satellites. Antimony goes into flame retardants, batteries and ammunition — the United States relies on imports for 91 percent of what it uses, according to the US Geological Survey.
Here is how the countdown looks.
The deadlines
December 2024: Beijing bans exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US outright, and tightens reviews on graphite — retaliation in the escalating technology trade war. The licensing regime for gallium and germanium had already been in force since August 2023.
November 9, 2025: After a US-China trade truce, China’s commerce ministry suspends the ban until November 27, 2026. The suspension never covered shipments to US military end users — that prohibition stayed in force throughout.
October 2026 (now): With five weeks to go, there is no confirmed extension. On September 24, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington and Beijing had agreed to extend their broader trade truce through January 10, 2027 — but according to the AsiaAI export-controls tracker, the legal instruments were never published, and it remains unclear which individual suspensions the extension would cover.
November 10, 2026: A separate, earlier deadline — the lapse of China’s one-year pause on its expanded October 2025 rare-earth export controls. The April 2025 licensing regime for seven rare earths was never suspended at all.
November 27, 2026: The gallium, germanium and antimony suspension expires.
What’s at stake
The last time these minerals were weaponised, prices went vertical. European germanium prices rose from about $3,150 per kilogram in January 2025 to over $5,380 by October 2025, US Geological Survey data shows. For industries that cannot simply substitute the material — chipmakers, satellite builders, defence suppliers — a reinstated ban would mean scrambling for alternative sources at whatever price the market demands.
Some companies have started engineering their way around the chokepoint. In September, Rocket Lab began production of a germanium-free space solar cell — 31.5 percent efficient, 40 percent lighter, and a drop-in replacement for the germanium-based cells the industry has used for three decades. It was designed, not coincidentally, for exactly this supply risk.
But engineering takes years; deadlines take weeks. If November 27 passes without an extension, the ban snaps back — and the next five weeks become a scramble.
What happens next
Three outcomes are in play: a quiet extension (the pattern of the last year), a selective reinstatement, or the full return of the December 2024 ban. Beijing has shown it treats these minerals as leverage to be dialled up and down, not as a settled question. With the US election cycle’s trade politics and the January truce deadline both in the mix, the decision will be read as a signal of where the broader US-China economic relationship is heading.
For everyone downstream — from chip fabs to satellite manufacturers to munitions plants — the prudent move is the one markets hate: plan for the ban, hope for the extension.
Related: Washington’s curbs on high-tech investment in China — the other half of the technology standoff.
